China Aluminum Wheel Exports Hit a Three-Year High in January, but Faced a “Waterloo” in February [SMM Analysis]

Customs data shows that China's exports of aluminum alloy wheel hubs totaled 155,300 mt from January to February 2025, a slight increase of 1% YoY. Among them, China exported 88,800 mt of aluminum alloy wheel hubs in January 2025, a significant increase of 17.6% MoM from December 2024. Notably, the export volume of aluminum alloy wheel hubs in January this year hit a new high since January 2022, with a steady small increase compared to 88,100 mt in the same period last January. SMM believes this is closely related to the "rush to export" behavior under the expectation of tariff hikes. In February 2025, China exported 6.65 mt of aluminum alloy wheel hubs, a sharp decrease of 25.1% MoM from January, but still a steady small increase compared to 65,700 mt in the same period last year.

SMM's aluminum market research shows that from January to February 2024, the export pattern of Chinese aluminum alloy wheel hubs continued the traditional market distribution characteristics, with the US, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and Thailand maintaining the major export shares. The combined exports reached 117,600 mt, accounting for 75.7% of the total exports. Notably, under the expected disturbance of the Trump administration's return to power in 2025, the North American market became the main battlefield for the industry's "rush to export." The US's monthly export share consistently exceeded the 30% threshold, with January exports surging 21% MoM, and the share climbing to a high of 37% in February. In contrast, Japan's market share mildly pulled back to below 20%, while South Korea and Mexico maintained their shares in the 10% range, and Thailand remained stable at the 5% baseline.

Market monitoring found that Mexico regained its position as the third-largest exporter since December 2023, with exports to Mexico increasing 16% MoM in January. SMM's in-depth survey revealed that this phenomenon is closely related to trade arbitrage between North American countries—a large number of Chinese-made aluminum wheels are assembled in Mexico and then enter the US market in the form of complete vehicles to avoid tariff barriers. However, influenced by the Trump team's fluctuating tariff policies towards neighboring countries, the export shares of Mexico and Canada marginally contracted in February 2024, showing the immediate transmission effect of policy uncertainty.

Although the industry's exports rebounded at the end of 2024 and hit a new high in recent years in January 2025, SMM emphasized that this pulse-like growth is essentially a result of forced advanced shipments due to tariff and trade wars. Data shows that the concentration of the top three export markets has exceeded the 60% warning line, an increase of over 10 percentage points from the historical average, exposing serious risks of market structure imbalance. Although top-tier enterprises have initiated diversification strategies to mitigate risks through emerging market development, localized capacity transfer, and domestic demand channel construction, considering the accelerated deterioration of the international trade environment, SMM expects that the export of aluminum wheels will enter a deep adjustment period in H1 2025. The export volume of aluminum wheels may show an overall downward trend, with the YoY decline potentially exceeding market expectations, and the industry's pain period may continue until the new tariff system becomes clear.